[last updated Dec 22 2025]
To justify current AI infrastructure spend, inference token consumption needs to grow 9-12% monthly through 2026.
<aside>
Current trajectory: So far, so good 🟢
</aside>
+9-12% CMGR (2025-2026)
+13-17% CMGR range, in recent months.
The goal is to monitor whether the growth trajectory of AI inference demand is roughly in line with what infrastructure investment levels imply is necessary.
Since there's no standard reporting format across providers and some double-counting, focus on triangulating the growth trends across providers (rather than summing to a market total).
The most recent monthly growth figures to reference are shown in green.
| Provider | Period | Token Consumption | CMGR | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | ||||
| (total) | Apr 2024 | 9.7T | Source | |
| Sep 2024 | 65T | +46% | Q3 earnings | |
| Apr 2025 | 480T | +33% | Q2 earnings | |
| Jul 2025 | 980T | +43% | Q2 earnings | |
| Sep 2025 | 1,300T | +15% | Q3 earnings | |
| Alphabet | ||||
| (Gemini API only) | Sept 2025 | 300T | ||
| (~23% total Alphabet volume) | Q3 earnings | |||
| Microsoft | ||||
| (Foundry APIs only) | Full year - FY 2024 | |||
| (Jul 2023-Jun 2024) | 71T | FY Q4 2025 earnings | ||
| Full year - FY 2025 | ||||
| (Jul 2024-Jun 2025) | 500T | +17% | FY Q4 2025 earnings | |
| Q3 - FY 2024 | ||||
| (Jan 2025-Mar 2025) | 20T | FY Q3 2025 earnings | ||
| Q3 - FY 2025 | ||||
| (Jan 2025-Mar 2025) | 100T | +14% | FY Q3 2025 earnings | |
| Q1 - FY 2026 | ||||
| (Jul 2025-Sep 2025) | (not reported) | FY Q1 2026 earnings | ||
| Meta | Jan 2024 | |||
| (monthly run rate) | (not reported) | Source | ||
| Jul 2024 | ||||
| (monthly run rate) | (not reported) | +47% | Source | |
| OpenAI | ||||
| (API calls only) | Oct 2023 | |||
| (monthly run rate) | 13T | Source | ||
| Oct 2025 | ||||
| (monthly run rate) | 259T | +13% | Source | |
| Fireworks.ai | Nov 2025 | 390T | Source | |
| (est total inference market) | Oct 2025 | 1,500T | Source | |
| OpenRouter | ||||
| (total period) | Q4 2024 (est.) | 6T | Source | |
| Q1 2025 | 14T | +31% | ||
| Q2 2025 | 28T | +27% | ||
| Q3 2025 | 50T | +21% | ||
| Q4 (run-rate as of 12/22) | 70T | +12% |
🟢 All major providers reporting token usage around 9%+ CMGR
🟡 Starting to see some deceleration in recent months. E.g., Alphabet's monthly cumulative growth decelerated from 43% (May-Jul) to 15% (Jul-Sep). OpenRouter trending to 7% CMR in Oct and Nov.