last updated Nov 2025
To justify current AI infrastructure spend, inference token consumption needs to grow 9-12% monthly through 2026.
<aside>
Current trajectory: So far, so good 🟢
</aside>
+9-12% CMGR (2025-2026)
+13-17% CMGR range, in recent months.
| Provider | Period | Token Consumption | CMGR | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | ||||
| (total) | May 2025 | 480T | Q2 earnings | |
| Jul 2025 | 980T | +43% | Q2 earnings | |
| Sep 2025 | 1,300T | +15% | Q3 earnings | |
| Alphabet | ||||
| (Gemini API only) | Sept 2025 | 300T | ||
| (~23% total token volume) | Q3 earnings | |||
| Microsoft | ||||
| (Foundry APIs only) | Full year - FY 2024 | |||
| (Jul 2023-Jun 2024) | 71T | FY Q4 2025 earnings | ||
| Full year - FY 2025 | ||||
| (Jul 2024-Jun 2025) | 500T | +17% | FY Q4 2025 earnings | |
| Q3 - FY 2024 | ||||
| (Jan 2025-Mar 2025) | 20T | FY Q3 2025 earnings | ||
| Q3 - FY 2025 | ||||
| (Jan 2025-Mar 2025) | 100T | +14% | FY Q3 2025 earnings | |
| OpenAI | ||||
| (API calls only) | Oct 2023 | |||
| (monthly run rate) | 13T | Source | ||
| Oct 2025 | ||||
| (monthly run rate) | 259T | +13% | Source |
Highlighted growth stats represent the latest figures. No public token consumption data for Meta, Amazon, or Anthropic.
🟢 All major providers reporting token metrics are currently exceeding +9% CMGR
🟡 Alphabet's monthly cumulative growth decelerated from 43% (May-Jul) to 15% (Jul-Sep). Alphabet's token increase partially driven by model inefficiency (Gemini 2.5 Flash uses 17x more tokens per request).
This tracker is based on a simple framework that connects infrastructure spending to inference token demand.